How Will U.S. Lumber Prices End the Year?

November and December are typically among the stronger months for random length lumber future market prices with prices on average (20-year) increasing 0.7% and 0.9% respectively.

Seasonal U.S. random length lumber price changes. Current year (green) vs 20-yr average (grey), 10-yr (blue), 5-yr (orange). Source: Commodity Seasonality

That said, 2017 has not been a typical year. Prices have been “off-the-charts“, deviating far from the norm. This, in part, is the result of a perfect storm, much of which looks to remain intact.

Although prices have come into year’s end well above the average, we see a good chance that prices will continue to move lower in the near-term, back towards their historical norm.

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